{"id":3172,"date":"2024-09-04T16:01:33","date_gmt":"2024-09-04T15:01:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uniofglos.blog\/history\/?p=3172"},"modified":"2024-11-05T12:21:21","modified_gmt":"2024-11-05T12:21:21","slug":"what-did-the-future-look-like-50-years-ago","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sites.glos.ac.uk\/history\/2024\/09\/04\/what-did-the-future-look-like-50-years-ago\/","title":{"rendered":"What did the Future Look Like 50 Years Ago?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Nuclear physicist and human rights campaigner Andrei Sakharov published an article in 1974 in which he predicted what the future would look like in fifty years time. How far have his predictions become a reality in 2024?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 24 August 1974 issue of Saturday Review World<\/em> was given the title \u20182024 AD: a Probe into the Future\u2019 [https:\/\/www.unz.com\/print\/SaturdayRev\/Contents\/?Period=1974<\/a>]. One of the contributors to a series of essays was Andrei Sakharov. Born in Moscow in 1921, by the 1970s Sakharov was well known on the world stage. He first established world renown as a nuclear physicist and was dubbed \u2018father of the H-bomb\u2019, but by the 1960s, Sakharov was beginning to turn his back on his scientific career when he began to see the potential devastation resulting from the technology he had helped to develop. Sakharov\u2019s second appearance on the world stage was as a prominent figure in the Soviet human rights movement. His support for Soviet dissidents saw him banished into internal exile in the early 1980s, later returning to Moscow once Gorbachev took office, by which time he was an ardent campaigner for peace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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In this 1974 magazine article, Sakharov begins by setting out the challenges that \u2018will determine the nature of the future\u2019: on the downside – population growth, depletion of natural resources and disruption of the ecological balance; but all of this countered scientific and technological progress. Although thermonuclear missiles pose a great threat, so too does the decline of personal and governmental morality, including that witnessed in socialist countries. Sakharov envisaged that \u2018the convergence of the Socialist and capitalist systems would be accompanied by demilitarization\u2019. Along with the benefits this would bring, he argued that \u2018free movement throughout the planet … must be resolved democratically’.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sakharov\u2019s futurological hypotheses involved the separation of available landmass. \u2018Work Territory\u2019 (WT; 30 million square kms with 300 people per square km) is marked by intensive agriculture (using superfertile soil, universal irrigation, artificially illuminated hothouses), and giant automated and semi-automated industry. People will live in \u2018super cities\u2019 of multi-storied buildings with automated kitchens, where suburbs stretch for many kilometres with small houses serviced by the conveniences of modern living \u2013 \u2018silent and comfortable public transportation, clean air, arts and crafts, and a free and varied cultural life\u2019. The expansion of the WT will see \u2018flying cities\u2019 serving important industrial functions (cosmic research laboratories and way stations for long-distance flights), powered by both solar energy and thermonuclear installations to avoid superheating the earth. Agriculture will also spread to new areas \u2013 the oceans, Antarctica, the moon and planets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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One of the designs produced in 1928 by Georgy Krutikov: https:\/\/www.rbth.com\/history\/335164-georgy-krutikov-engineer-flying-city<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The \u2018Preserve Territory\u2019 (PT; 80 million square kms with 25 people per square km), the larger of the two spheres, \u2018will be set aside for maintaining the earth\u2019s ecological balance\u2019, for leisure and for individuals to re-establish their \u2018own natural balance\u2019. The PT offers not only time to rest, but also to work with hands and heads, to read and think. Housing will be self-built, and the main aim of residents will be \u2018to preserve nature and themselves\u2019. Subterranean cities will also develop for sleep and entertainment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In terms of food security, the \u2018pressing problem of protein starvation\u2019 and malnutrition will not be solved by the intensification of animal husbandry, but rather through the creation of animal protein substitutes. Preservation of the environment will require international-scale radical changes in industry, energy production and lifestyles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cyber, communications and information technologies will play even greater roles in the future. Sakharov envisaged a global telephone and videophone system, and a universal information system (UIS, superseding TV as the main source of information and breaking down barriers in information exchange) giving access to the contents of any book, magazine or fact; and individual mini computers. Art and books will retain their value as a source of joy \u2013 \u2018the private library will always exist\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Video calling, from \u2018In the Year 2017\u2019 by V. Strukova and V. Shevchenko, illustrated by L. Smekhov, produced by the Diafilm studio in 1960: https:\/\/rarehistoricalphotos.com\/how-soviets-imagined-year-2017-in-1960\/<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Energy production will need to balance its generation with pollution controls (in the use of coal), with increasing use of atomic energy. The car will be replaced by \u2018a battery-powered vehicle on mechanical \u201clegs\u201d\u2019, preserving grass and with no need for asphalt roads. Passenger and freight transport will be via atomic-powered helium dirigibles and high-speed atomic powered trains, on monorails and underground. Further into the future, achievements in synthetic matter may see the emergence of super-conductive, frictionless magnetised rails. Complex computer simulation (larger memories, faster action) will be of great significance to solve problems with multiple variables, such as weather forecasting, use in astrophysics and biophysical processes, cosmology, metallurgy and chemistry, as well as for making economic and sociological calculations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Cover of Znanie-Sila<\/em> (Knowledge is Power<\/em>) Soviet magazine, 1960: https:\/\/www.pinterest.com\/pin\/132856257751677198\/<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Sakharov envisaged that developments in physics and chemistry will see the emergence of synthetic materials, superior to what is found in nature and allowing for artificial reproduction. For example, artificial diamonds will be used in technological advances, helping to reduce industrial production costs. Attempts will be made to establish communications with civilisations from other planets, including the use of our own transmitting stations. Powerful telescopes will be set up in space or on the moon, allowing greater exploration of the nearest stars. There will probably be some economic exploitation of the moon\u2019s surface.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Tekhnika \u2013 Molodezhi (Youth Engineering), issue 2, 1959, illustration by B. Dashkov for the article \u2018What Would a Space Station on the Moon Look Like?\u2019: https:\/\/www.russiaislove.com\/history\/332103-soviet-space-colonization-sci-fil<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As with the advance of human knowledge generated at the beginning of the twentieth century by quantum mechanics, Sakharov imagined that advances in the twenty-first century may lead to new perceptions of the structure of space and time, bringing benefits to biophysics, medicine and social cybernetics: \u2018every major discovery will have a profound influence\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Sakharov\u2019s 1974 estimation, in order to counter the challenges of population growth and depletion of natural resources, there can be no return to the past (which, rather than being healthy, was in reality often cruel and joyless), no prospect of turning-back aspects of progress without ruining civilisation. Alongside technological and material progress, the future also depends on \u2018the humaneness of humans and the naturalness of nature\u2019.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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